The Celtics Refuse to Pass the Ball
Creator: Winslow Townson | Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports | Copyright: Winslow Townson
The Celtics don’t pass. At this point it’s not even that they’re not good at it, they just don’t do it in the first place. Whether the blame should be placed on Brad Stevens or the players is beside the point. Boston is one of the worst passing teams in the NBA this season, despite finding some of their best success when they move the ball well.
When the Celtics record 25 or more assists in a game this season, they are 8-1. When they have less than 20 in a game, they are 2-6. When their assist numbers lie somewhere in between they are 5-8. It is so painfully clear that ball movement is key to the Celtics winning games, yet they’re just not doing it.
Boston ranks fifth in the NBA in isolation frequency (8.2%) and sixth in the league in isolation possessions per game (9.2). That’s on par with teams like the Milwaukee Bucks and LA Clippers, who are 18-13 and 22-10, respectively. The difference is, the Celtics are terrible at scoring when they run isolation plays. They rank 24th in the league in field goal percentage off isolation plays (37.8%), and 27th in the league in score frequency off isolation plays (38.5%). That’s around where the Detroit Pistons and Oklahoma City Thunder rank, who are 8-22 and 12-19 this year, respectively.
This large quantity of isolation plays is directly affecting their passing numbers. The C’s are 20th in the NBA in passes made per game (283.6) and 28th in assists per game (22.0). This only gets worse late in the game, where they rank 29th in assists per fourth quarter (4.5). Also, if there’s any belief that this is simply because the Celtics aren’t making the shots off of assists, that’s also a false narrative. Boston is also 29th in the league in potential assists per game (40.0).
Their reluctance to pass the ball is costing them ball games, too. Boston is one of the best teams in the league when they get catch-and-shoot opportunities. They shoot 39.7% (9th in NBA) on these looks and 38.5% (10th in NBA) from three in these situations. These numbers rank right around the Phoenix Suns, who are 20-10 on the season.
The baffling part is that the Celtics rarely ever run plays to get catch-and-shoot looks. They are 28th in the league in catch and shoot field goals per game (22.4), and 29th on catch and shoot threes per game (19.9). The only team who is slightly worse than the Celtics in both these categories is the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs are 10-21 this year. However, the Cavs are bad when they get into these situations, so it makes sense that they don’t take the shots. Boston not looking for catch-and-shoot opportunities is like Tom Brady deciding to scramble instead of pass the ball. Why stray away from something you’re clearly good at in favor of something that you’re clearly bad at? It’s mind-blowing.
The real question floating around is where to place the blame. On one hand, some blame can be placed on Jayson Tatum. Tatum ranks sixth in the league in isolation frequency (18.1%), but 141st of 154* on score frequency on those looks (35.3%). He’s also fifth in isolation possessions per game (4.6). (Fun fact, Jeff Teague ranks ninth in the NBA in isolation frequency, as well (17.2%).)
*Of players who have at least 1.0 isolation possessions per game
On the other hand, Brad Stevens could be catching a lot of the blame for this issue. It’s very clear that the Celtics are great when they get catch-and-shoot opportunities. They thrive when the ball is moving and they generate high assist numbers. Despite this, the team continues to run isolation plays and stray away from something they excel at. Whether or not that’s Stevens’ doing it unknown, but he has to have a part in it.
All in all, a piece of the blame should be placed on everyone. The team as a whole is failing to move the ball enough, and it could be argued that it’s the main reason they’re struggling this season. Boston has to figure out how to pass because if they don’t, it’s going to be a long season for C’s fans.
