Preview: Celtics Take on Red Hot Wizards in First-Ever NBA Play-In Tournament

Brian Babineau | National Basketball Association | Getty

The Celtics begin their postseason run tonight after finishing the season 36-36. They take on the Washington Wizards in the first-ever NBA play-in tournament.

HOW TO WATCH

Location: TD Garden, Boston, Mass.

Time: 9:00 p.m. (EST)

Channel(s): NBC Sports Boston

INJURY REPORT

Washington’s injury report lists only three players. Thomas Bryant (torn ACL) and Deni Avdija (broken leg) remain out for the season. The report also lists Raul Neto (hamstring) as probable. Though not listed on the injury report, Beal continues to deal with a hamstring injury. He told the media that he plans to play, but “won't be 100 percent” for the game.

Brad Stevens gave an injury update at his post-practice press conference yesterday. He stated that everyone is healthy and ready to go, but Robert Williams (turf toe) will be a gameday decision. Boston’s injury report lists him as probable. Barring any major setbacks, Jaylen Brown (wrist) remains the only unavailable player for tonight’s game.

PLAYER STATS

The Wizards have been one of the hottest teams in the NBA in large part due to Russell Westbrook. He averages 25.5 PPG, 13.6 RPG, and 15.6 APG over their last ten games. His teammate, Bradley Beal, finished in second place for the scoring title this season, averaging 31.3 PPG. That two-headed monster combined for nearly 40% of Washington’s points this season. 

Four other players contributed double-digit scoring numbers over the last ten games for Washington - Rui Hachimura (16.3), Davis Bertans (12.0), Raul Neto (11.8), and Robin Lopez (10.6). Daniel Gafford, who joined the team at the trade deadline, also provides a nice spark. He averages 10.1 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 1.8 BPG with the Wizards this season.

Jayson Tatum leads the Celtics in scoring this season with 26.4 PPG. With Jaylen Brown sidelined, Kemba Walker acts as Boston’s secondary scorer. He averaged 19.3 PPG this season but scored 28.5 PPG over his last six games. Marcus Smart (13.1 PPG, 5.7 APG) and Evan Fournier both play large roles on the offensive end as well. The French swingman averages 13.0 PPG since joining the C’s at the trade deadline.

Over the last ten games, only two players managed to stay healthy for all ten - rookies Aaron Nesmith and Payton Pritchard. Both provide productive minutes off the bench, averaging 21.6 MPG and 18.6 MPG over that span, respectively. Tristan Thompson also stepped up in the absence of Robert Williams, grabbing 3.9 offensive boards per game in the last ten games (5th in NBA over that span).

RECENT STATS

Washington closed out the season by going 10-5 in their last 15 games. They rank number one in PPG over that stretch (126.5), third in RPG (47.8), and fifth in APG (27.1). Their efficiency numbers look great as well, ranking fifth in FG% (49.2%) and 11th in 3PT% (37.9%). Washington also scores 60.9 PPG in the paint over that stretch, over four whole points better than the second-best team (Pelicans - 56.5 PITP). The Wizards’ well-rounded offensive attack poses the biggest threat, as their defense leaves much to be desired.

Over that same span where the Wizards went 10-5, they allowed the third-most points per game of any team (120.1). They guard the three-point line well (opponents shoot 34.4%), but allow a whopping 68.1% in the restricted area (25th in NBA). They also rank dead last at guarding the midrange 50.3% oFG%).

Taking a look at Boston’s last 15 games (5-10), offensive numbers look bleak. The C’s rank 17th in PPG (112.4), 24th in FG% (45.2%), and 15th in 3PT% (37.3%) on the fifth most three-point attempts of any team. They also fall in the bottom ten in terms of APG (23.6), points in the paint (44.8), and FTA (20.2).

The defensive side of the ball posed an even bigger issue for Boston over that stretch. They guard the restricted area well (62.8% oFG%), but their three-point defense looks horrendous. The Celtics allowed opponents to shoot 38.4% from deep, including 42.4% on corner threes. The C’s also allow 24.0 free throws per game over that stretch (27th in NBA).

Neither side hangs their hat on defense, but the Wizards gain an advantage on the offensive side of the ball. They out-rank Boston in early every statistical category. Their red hot run to end the season put them in prime position for a playoff run. Despite this, Washington scores a lot of their points in the paint, an area the Celtics defend well.

PREVIOUS GAMES

The Celtics and Wizards faced off three times this season, with the Celtics taking home wins in two of them. However, the teams have not played since late February. A lot changed since then. Only Jayson Tatum, Semi Ojeleye, and Payton Pritchard played in all three of the games for Boston.

Beal absolutely lit up the C’s this season. In the three games, he averaged 40.7 PPG on roughly 55-46-96 shooting splits. He also added 5.7 boards and 3.3 assists to go along with it. Westbrook did not find as much success against Boston. He averaged only 16.3 PPG on roughly 35-25-67 shooting splits. However, Westbrook turned things up a notch since playing the Celtics last. Davis Bertans also played the C’s very well, averaging 13.7 PPG while shooting 45.8% from range.

For the C’s, Brown led the team in scoring vs Washington (26.0 PPG). With him out, Tatum ranks atop Boston's scorers against the Wizards (22.0 PPG). Kemba Walker also found success in his two games vs Washington, averaging 23.0 PPG. He shot 45.7% from the field and 50% from deep.

Boston’s centers (Tristan Thompson and Robert Williams) struggled vs Washington’s bigs this season. They combined for 18 points over four total games played, shooting 6-16 (37.5%) from the field. Thompson alone shot 2-12 from the field (16.7%) in his two games vs Washington. Meanwhile, Robin Lopez and Rui Hachimura killed the C’s. They scored 56 total points on 21-38 shooting from the field (55.3%) in six total games played.

MATCHUPS

Tatum guarded Beal more than any other player on the C’s this season (7:56) but got torched in the process. Beal shot 6-11 (54.5%) from the field and 2-3 (66.7%) from deep when guarded by Tatum this season. When looking at available players, only Tacko Fall, Semi Ojeleye, Aaron Nesmith, and Grant Williams held Beal to below 50% shooting from the field. They combined to guard him for under five minutes, with Ojeleye matching up with him the most (1:55, 1-4 FG).

The Celtics guarded Westbrook much more effectively than Beal. Although Tatum logged the most minutes on Westbrook this season (7:10), Smart acted as his primary defender. Smart only played against the Wizards once this season and matched up with Westbrook for the second-most minutes on the team (4:59). In that time, Smart held Westbrook to 0-6 shooting from the field and 0-2 from deep.

Beal and Tatum’s friendship goes back for many years, so the pair always guard each other when the two teams face off. However, Beal got the better of Tatum when matched up against him this year. He guarded Tatum for a whopping 16:17 this season, holding him to 7-18 (38.9%) from the field and 1-8 (12.5%) from deep. Tatum did manage to score well vs his secondary (Westbrook) and tertiary (Isaac Bonga) defenders this year, however. He combined to shoot 7-12 (58.3%) from the field and 2-4 (50%) from three vs them.

Westbrook guarded Walker more than anyone else on the Wizards and did a great job doing so. Walker shot 0-3 from the field and 0-2 from deep in 4:58 when matched up against Westbrook this season. However, Walker cooked each of the next three defenders who guarded him. When guarded by Beal, Raul Neto, and Rui Hachimura (10:58 total game time), Walker combined to shoot 13-15 (86.7%) from the field and 6-7 (85.7%) from three.

The real question mark in this series will be Evan Fournier. He averaged 16.0 PPG in two games vs the Wizards this season on roughly 44-30-87 shooting splits. However, Fournier never played the Wizards since being a part of the Celtics. When in Orlando, the Wizards guarded him with primarily Beal, who held him to 33.3% shooting. With Tatum and Walker drawing Washington’s best defenders, Fournier’s opportunities on offense become that much easier. 

CONCLUSION

Boston’s ability to defend the paint gives them their best shot at slowing down Washington. Their offense leaves a lot to be desired, but with the team nearly at full strength, a potential breakout game could be in the works. Losing Brown puts them a man down on defense, but Pritchard and Nesmith both showed the ability to step up when needed on that end of the floor. The matchup poses an interesting storyline - the red-hot Wizards vs the struggling Celtics. While Boston may be favored in the game, their performance in recent weeks shows signs of a team destined for the lottery.

PREGAME SHOW

Make sure to tune in to our live pregame show, “The Banner Town Build Up.” We go live 30 minutes before every Celtics game @GuyBostonSports on YouTube and Facebook. See you there at 8:30 p.m. (EST) tonight!