Comparing the Celtics with the 16-17 Warriors
Saturday, Jan. 27, 2018, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot) (Ben Margot)
With the departure of Gordon Hayward for Charlotte, the Celtics are going to need their top guys to step up even more. What once was a big four is now a big three, and that could turn out to be a better thing than most realize.
In recent NBA history there has only been one championship-level team with four All-Stars on it - the Golden State Warriors. However, while all four of those guys on the team are extremely talented, I would argue that only three of them are capable of making an All-Star team if they were put on their own team. While Draymond Green is a great player, he benefits greatly from the talent of those around him. This year’s Celtics team is built the exact same way.
With Hayward gone, the Celtics are left with four core pieces - Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker, and Marcus Smart. While this clearly isn’t an exact replica of the Warriors dynasty teams, it compares much closer than you might think.
Jayson Tatum = Kevin Durant
This is the obvious comparison out of the bunch. Tatum is still only 22 years old, but he’s emerged as one of the consensus best players in the league after stellar post-All-Star break and playoff performances. He’s an elite scorer that can rebound, defend, and even pass a little bit now. Let’s take a look at Tatum’s playoff numbers from last season and compare them to Durant’s playoff numbers from his best season in Golden State.
For this comparison I’m going to use Durant’s 2016-17 playoff run , as this is when the Warriors were at their peak. It was Durant’s first year in Oakland, the Warriors went 16-1 in the playoffs, and Durant was their leading scorer. On top of that, the Warriors played the same amount of games in those playoffs (17) as the Celtics did in the 2019-20 playoffs.
Durant’s statline in the 16-17 playoffs: 28.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 4.3 APG, 0.8 SPG, 1.3 BPG
Tatum’s statline in the 19-20 playoffs: 25.7 PPG, 10 RPG, 5.0 SPG, 1.0 SPG, 1.2 BPG
Overall, some fairly similar numbers. Durant was significantly more efficient during the Warriors run than Tatum was with the Celtics, but Tatum wasn’t bad by any means. Considering Tatum is still improving at a rapid pace, this comparison is super encouraging to see. The two were obviously at very different points in their careers during these playoff runs, but as the basis for this team-to-team comparison, the numbers are pretty close.
Kemba Walker = Stephen Curry
Now this is where the comparison gets a little dicey. Out of all the player-to-player comparisons this is by far the biggest stretch as Curry is clearly the better player out of the two. On top of that, Walker struggled mightily in the playoffs this past season, but let’s compare the two anyways.
Curry’s statline in the 16-17 playoffs: 28.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 6.7 APG, 2.0 SPG, 0.2 BPG
Walker’s statline in the 19-20 playoffs: 19.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 5.1 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.4 BPG
As I mentioned, the dropoff in talent is significant here. We all know Curry as a two-time MVP and this playoff run came at the peak of his career. Meanwhile, Walker was coming into a situation where this was the deepest he’d ever been in the playoffs and was still learning how to be effective as the second/third option on a winning team.
While I will concede that Curry is very clearly better than Walker, I won’t let that ruin the comparison of the two teams. At base-level, the outline of each team needs to have an All-Star caliber point guard. Curry may be a better point guard, but Walker still plays at an All-Star level and has played at that level for many years.
Jaylen Brown = Klay Thompson
I absolutely adore this comparison and I think once I share the numbers with you all, you’ll agree with me. When it comes to Thompson we all think of one thing - shooting. Thompson is arguably the best catch and shoot three-point shooter of all time. He was a dominant force next to Curry and Durant for years, and Brown can be that (and more) for Walker and Tatum.
Thompson’s statline in the 16-17 playoffs: 15.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.1 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.3 BPG
Brown’s statline in the 19-20 playoffs: 21.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.5 SPG, 0.5 BPG
Thompson may have struggled in the 16-17 playoffs, but Brown’s 21.8 PPG is still better than anything Thompson was able to put up during the era with Curry and Durant. The same can be said for Brown’s rebounding, assist, and steal numbers. However, when it comes to comparing Brown to Thompson, we have to look at the catch and shoot percentages to get an accurate gauge on how well the two match up.
On catch and shoot threes in the 16-17 playoffs, Thompson shot 37.9% and scored 7.1 points a game. On the same type of attempts in the 19-20 playoffs, Brown shot 39.8% and scored 7.0 points a night. Eerily similar numbers with Brown having the slight edge in terms of percentage. While Brown’s role on the Celtics should ultimately end up being much larger in terms of versatility, from everything we’ve seen so far he is in fact capable of replicating Thompson’s playoff performances.
Marcus Smart = Draymond Green
Out of all the four comparisons being made here, this is the only one where the positions vary by a lot. Green is obviously a power forward/center, while Smart is a combo guard. However, the similarity lies in what they bring to the table. Both are All-Defensive First Team members who have been praised as the best defenders in the league at some point in time.
Green’s statline in the 16-17 playoffs: 13.1 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 6.5 APG, 1.8 SPG, 1.6 BPG
Smart’s statline in the 19-20 playoffs: 14.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.2 SPG, 0.5 BPG
At face value, Green seems to be much more of an impactful player, but there are very important factors to consider here. For starters, Hayward was in and out of the playoff rotation in Boston due to injury, meaning Smart was forced to switch between being the fourth and fifth option on a dime. As well as this, the entire concept of this “fourth option” on each of these teams is that they are a defensive specialist that makes winning plays on that side of the ball. In order to see that, let’s take a look at the advanced defensive statistics.
When defended by Green within three feet in the 16-17 playoffs, opponents shot 43% from the field. Looking at the same statistic for Smart in the 19-20 playoffs, opponents shot 42.3%. When it comes to having a lockdown guy on the floor, both of these players are elite options. Green has made the All-Defensive First Team three times, Smart has made it twice, and while Green has won DPOY twice, you never know what could happen in the rest of Smart’s career.
While it clearly isn’t an exact matchup in terms of pure talent, the rough outline is there when comparing this season’s Celtics squad with the 16-17 Warriors. Will they have the same success? Only time will tell.
